Key finding
The study produced the first regionally consistent, sample-based assessment of deforestation and forest degradation for all six Congo Basin countries. The results reveal a forest landscape under different pressures than many assume. Deforestation across the region has been largely stable over the eight-year period. The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for the vast majority of gross deforestation, at 8.1 million hectares over eight years. Cameroon lost 819,000 hectares, the Central African Republic 448,000 hectares, and the Republic of Congo 151,000 hectares.
What the research asks
The Congo Basin contains the world's second largest tropical rainforest, yet consistent, statistically robust estimates of forest change across all six countries have been surprisingly scarce. Without a shared baseline, national reporting, international carbon finance, and regional conservation planning all operate on incompatible numbers. This study set out to produce the first regionally consistent, sample-based assessment of deforestation and forest degradation for the entire Congo Basin, using open-source tools that national forestry agencies can replicate and update themselves.
What it finds
The study produced the first regionally consistent, sample-based assessment of deforestation and forest degradation for all six Congo Basin countries. The results reveal a forest landscape under different pressures than many assume. Deforestation across the region has been largely stable over the eight-year period. The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for the vast majority of gross deforestation, at 8.1 million hectares over eight years, with a relatively low margin of error (7.5%). Cameroon lost 819,000 hectares, the Central African Republic 448,000 hectares, and the Republic of Congo 151,000 hectares. Gabon and Equatorial Guinea showed much lower deforestation figures at 96,000 and 48,000 hectares respectively.
But the more dynamic and worrying trend is degradation. In every country except DRC, the area affected by degradation exceeds the area deforested. Cameroon lost 2.1 million hectares to degradation, more than double its deforestation figure. Degradation increased in nearly all countries over the study period, driven primarily by small-scale agriculture and artisanal logging. Industrial drivers were more limited in extent but have potentially more permanent impacts on biomass and land cover.
The methodology used a probability-based sampling approach with nearly 63,000 interpretation points, all visually assessed using high-resolution Planet NICFI imagery. This approach produces unbiased area estimates with quantified uncertainty, which is what carbon accounting standards require.
Why it matters
This paper is directly relevant to forest carbon monitoring and REDD+ implementation in Africa. The finding that degradation is a larger and more dynamic problem than outright deforestation has practical implications for MRV system design. Degradation is harder to detect from satellite imagery alone, especially when it takes the form of selective logging or smallholder agricultural clearing. This underscores the value of combining satellite data with ground-based monitoring, including community-collected data.
The open-source methodology is also significant. The entire workflow runs on SEPAL, Google Earth Engine, and Collect Earth Online. National forestry agencies in the Congo Basin countries can replicate and update these baselines themselves. For companies conducting EUDR due diligence in Central Africa, these baselines provide a reference point: knowing that degradation from small-scale agriculture is the dominant change process in Cameroon shapes how a due diligence system should be configured.